Most leagues award the Golden Boot to whoever scored the most goals throughout a season. For example, Erling Haaland, Harry Kane and Artem Dovbyk in the Premier League, Bundesliga and La Liga. It doesn’t matter whether the goal was scored in open play, from a free kick, or a penalty. Each counts as one.
But should all goals be equally valued?
Last season, Sheffield United conceded 104 times and kept only one clean sheet across 38 matches, versus Brentford. The Blades were blown out many times, losing 8-0 to Newcastle United, 6-0 to Arsenal and 5-0 on multiple occasions.
Everyone scored against them, so much so that the playground taunt ‘My grandmother could score against Sheffield United’ was never more true, especially if grandma played up front against Sheffield United. But she’s not a striker.
Anyway, no. All goals should not be equally valued.
On the other end of the spectrum, goals scored against top teams should be more valued more because such opponents are – unsurprisingly – really, really good. During 2023/24, Son Heung-min scored three past Arsenal, whilst Hwang Hee-chan and Jean-Philippe Mateta netted twice versus Manchester City. Grabbing goals against the two sides that conceded the fewest overall should be commended.
Also, multiple pundits and football journalists argued that Haaland disappeared in important matches against top teams, whether it be domestically or in Europe. I tend to agree but want data to support such claims. As a Man City fan, it’s also of personal interest.
So is there a better way of evaluating a season’s best scorer than just the raw goal count?
WEIGHTED GOAL AVERAGE (WGA)
This is an attempt to apply an objective value to each goal scored based on its quality of opponent.
A multiplier is assigned to each club based on their final table standing, where the multiplier is the inverse of table position. For instance, in the Premier League, the champion’s multiplier is 20, the runner-up’s is 19 and it’s just one for Sheffield United.
So let’s look at Cole Palmer’s four goals against both Manchester United (eighth) and Everton (15th). His weighted goals are 52 and 24.
In another example, Anthony Gordon netted 11 times against 10 different opponents:
- 1 v Man City = 20
- 1 v Arsenal = 19
- 1 v Liverpool = 18
- 1 v Tottenham = 16
- 1 v Chelsea = 15
- 2 v Man United = 26
- 1 v Crystal Palace = 11
- 1 v Bournemouth = 9
- 1 v Wolves = 7
- 1 v Sheffield United = 1
His weighted goals total would be calculated as 142.
To find the average, divide this total by the number of goals, meaning that Gordon’s WGA is 12.91 – the highest amongst last season’s top 30 goal scorers.
They each scored at least ten goals, with weighted totals ranging from 73 (Bruno Fernandes) to 237 (Haaland). The other three players to reach 200 were Alexander Isak (211), Phil Foden (201) and Mateta (200).
Things get interesting when calculating their averages. As mentioned, Gordon (12.91) is number one. Mateta (12.50) is almost a complete point ahead of the next one, Son (11.65), with Hwang (11.33) and Elijah Adebayo (11.00) also in the neighbourhood.
Eight of Gordon’s eleven goals came against top-half teams, including each of the leading three.
As for Haaland? Despite winning the Golden Boot, his 8.78 WGA ranked only 20th amongst the top 30, aligning with the narrative that he isn’t as threatening when the bright lights shine.
Julian Alvarez seems set to join Atletico Madrid but wouldn’t have impressed them with a last-placed 6.82 WGA.
CONCLUSION
I’ve always believed that statistics alone don’t necessarily tell the more nuanced story that context provides. Baseball, in particular, has shown the way with some advanced analytics that have become more accepted over the last 15 to 20 years.
Football has its own advanced metrics and the above is one possible way to start thinking differently about goal scorers.
That said, I believe the multiplier could be enhanced to bring other variables into play. Home goals, away goals, the match outcome, open-play strikes, set-pieces, penalties, minutes played, rest between matches – there are definitely different ways to slice and dice data.
My main focus was to start the discussion about the actual value of goals and this is a good starting point. Gordon’s high WGA was a surprise until I looked against whom he scored and then it became apparent. While the Newcastle United attacker didn’t score the most goals, he usually did against the top teams. And that, I believe, shows potential in furthering this discussion.
Fantasy Football Scout’s exclusive Premium Membership offer is still available – but get it while you can, as it will soon expire!
Our special pre-season package is a 40% discount to our full-price Premium Membership, so for only £3.25 per month (billed annually), you get access to our unique Premium Members Area and the official Premier League data in it.
Plus, there will be all the usual benefits like team reveals, strategy tips and more.
This offer will soon cease, so sign up while you can!