For the second week running, Joao Pedro (£5.6m) is flagged before a Fantasy Premier League (FPL) deadline. This time, there is little chance of the Brazilian featuring.
Speaking to the media on Thursday, Fabian Hurzeler all but ruled the budget forward out of Gameweek 6.
“Joao had some problems after the game, he still has some problems. You have to go week to week with him but I don’t think that he will be an option for the weekend.
“We have to keep looking so I’m not sure how long he will be out. I think that Joao is a good healer and I’m convinced that he will be back soon but of course, also with this player we can’t take any risk. We all know that he’s a player who can make the difference for us but of course, we also have several other good options. Now we try to replace him as good as we can and give him like a good rehab, and I’m sure he won’t be out for so long – hopefully.” – Fabian Hurzeler
Still owned by over 25% of FPL managers, Pedro is being widely transferred out ahead of the weekend. At the time of writing, his total sales number 380,000.
So, who are the best candidates to replace him? Whether you’re on a Wildcard or not, we look at the pick of the sub-£6.5m forwards in the game.
DOMINIC CALVERT-LEWIN
Everton’s form has flipped since last season: scoring goals isn’t as big of a problem but keeping them out is.
The Toffees have scored five goals in their last three matches, spurning leads on all three occasions. Dominic Calvert-Lewin (£6.0m) has played a part in 60% of those goals, scoring two of them.
The underlying numbers are decent. No sub-£6.5m forward has registered as many penalty box touches (26). The only budget striker who has had more shots in the box than Calvert-Lewin (11) is Rodrigo Muniz (£6.0m), who has now lost his place at Fulham.
Everything in Sean Dyche’s set-up is geared towards chances for Calvert-Lewin. No side has a better cross completion rate than Everton (35.4%). Dwight McNeil (£5.4m) is the division’s leading chance creator, meanwhile.
The fixtures are pretty great, too. Even Crystal Palace and Newcastle United are proving more porous than usual, sitting 14th and 15th for xGC.
Profligacy and fitness are sticks often used to beat Calvert-Lewin with.
Yet, he’s made Everton’s squad in 36 of the last 39 league matches – and one of those absences was due to illness. Wastefulness is a fairer criticism, as he’s underachieved on the xG front in each of the last five seasons. He is on a run of six goals in the last 12 matches, at least.
CHRIS WOOD
Wastefulness is definitely not something you could accuse Chris Wood (£6.1m) of. He’s hit 14 goals in 21 starts under Nuno Espirito Santo, averaging 5.9 points per match.
He’s netted with 29.2% of his shots during that time, the sort of goal conversion rate you’d expect Erling Haaland (£15.3m) to post.
The Kiwi striker is the leading sub-£6.5m forward for big chances (six) this season. He’s also level with Calvert-Lewin for shots in the box (11).
And, like the Everton man, he’s also seemingly on penalties. We were expecting Morgan Gibbs-White (£6.4m) to step up from the spot in Gameweek 5 but Wood was tasked with the responsibility instead.
Taiwo Awoniyi (£5.7m) doesn’t seem to be posing much of a threat to Wood’s place right now, either.
With four appealing home fixtures – and a trip to Leicester City – in the next six Gameweeks, there’s a decent run to come before the schedule turns sour.
JAMIE VARDY
There’s a bit of a drop-off from Wood and Calvert-Lewin to the other candidates.
On the plus side, Jamie Vardy (£5.7m) and Leicester City have some favourable fixtures – at least after Gameweek 6.
Fatigue-led benchings may also not be as big of a concern until December, when the three-match weeks begin. Vardy has averaged 82 minutes per start this season, too, so there’s not as much in-game rotation as we might have expected for the 37-year-old hitman.
Of more of a short-term worry is the rate of chances Vardy is getting. We’re used to the veteran striker making the most of what little comes his way, of course. A notorious xG-buster, he was famously a dab hand at being invisible for 89 minutes and popping up with a goal out of nowhere.
He’ll really have to revisit his old magic act based on what his teammates have served up so far: he’s had just three shots all season, the same as what Enes Unal (£5.4m) has managed in 21 minutes of action for Bournemouth. Naturally, Vardy scored with two of those.
That’s the worry with Leicester under Steve Cooper – that the handbrake is too firmly applied and there isn’t much of a supply line to the striker.
JORGEN STRAND LARSEN
Wolverhampton Wanderers have had a tough start in terms of fixtures. By the time Gameweek 8 has finished, they will have faced six of last season’s top seven.
A goal and an assist isn’t bad going for Jorgen Strand Larsen (£5.5m) after five Gameweeks, then. He would have had another had David Raya (£5.6m) not pulled off a ‘worldie’ on the opening weekend.
That was one of four big chances that Wolves’ towering striker has had – the same figure as Calvert-Lewin, for context.
The matches look a lot more favourable from Gameweek 10 onwards. All three newly promoted clubs come between Gameweeks 11 and 17, for instance.
As mentioned in our article earlier this week, Strand Larsen’s fixtures pair well with those of Morgan Rogers (£5.2m) – so there’s some medium-term thinking behind this selection.
RAUL JIMENEZ
After Muniz’s goal drought resulted in him losing his place, Raul Jimenez (£5.4m) has pounced on the first-team opportunity that came his way.
The Mexican scored in each of his first two starts of 2024/25, impressing against Newcastle United last weekend.
He’s had six shots in the box, and three big chances, in his two most-recent run-outs.
Jimenez is one of the cheapest starters up front out there. In fact, of the forwards who have started a Premier League match this season, only Cameron Archer (£5.0m) costs less.
Playable this week and most definitely in Gameweeks 9-12, he’s cheap enough to be benched in the tougher tests in between.
ASSESSING THE OTHER CANDIDATES
Danny Welbeck (£5.8m) warrants a mention, especially with teammate Pedro out. He’s got as many goals as Wood (three) this season but with the following run ahead of him, the funds may be better spent elsewhere:
Evanilson (£6.0m) is a two-match punt for Southampton (h) and Leicester City (a), although his nine shots have so far yielded zero goals.
We haven’t yet mentioned the leading goalscorer among budget forwards – and he’s someone who has yet to start a league game in 2024/25. Jhon Duran (£6.1m) has four goals in five substitute appearances; despite those strikes, it’s difficult to fully recommend someone only being handed cameos.
Eddie Nketiah (£5.9m) and Iliman Ndiaye (£5.4m) come with caveats: they aren’t even playing as central strikers. Ndiaye is being used on the left wing at Everton, while Nketiah is operating as a right-sided ’10’ at Crystal Palace. That hasn’t stopped Nketiah having eight shots in two matches, mind.
Finally, as pure bench fodder, the only £4.5m forward getting any minutes is Southampton’s Ross Stewart (£4.5m). Should Saints’ other budget strikers, Archer and Adam Armstrong (£5.4m), continue to misfire, there are possibly even starting prospects for Stewart further down the line once his match fitness – he’s spent much of the last two years injured – is back up to scratch.
WHAT RATE MY TEAM (RMT) THINKS
Below are the projected points for sub-£6.5m forwards over the next six Gameweeks.
These will be further adjusted after the pre-match pressers on Friday, when injuries and rotation risks have been assessed.
