It’s that time again.

It’s just a couple of days before what has to be my favourite day of the year, when all 20 teams play at the same time and our overall ranks and mini-leagues are ultimately decided in one frantic 90-minute period.

It’s been a good season for me personally, having joined Fantasy Football Scout as a permanent member of the team just before the start of the campaign and going on to have a finish that (hopefully!) will see me add a top 10k finish to my season history.

GAMEWEEK 38: GOALS, GOALS, GOALS?

I’m always fascinated by Gameweek 38, as medium-long term planning is no longer required and people look for ways of making one final push. Who are the one or two players that can salvage someone’s season? Is there a differential captain that can propel you up the rankings? Can we benefit from a hit that needs to be repaid instantly, or is this too big of a gamble? Add into the mix the unpredictability of Gameweek 38 that in previous seasons has seen Manchester City hit for eight by Middlesbrough, Liverpool stung by Stoke City and Tottenham Hotspur pounded by Newcastle United and you have a recipe for an explosive end.

In fact, looking at the fixtures, I think there is huge potential for some hauls. Norwich v Spurs, Chelsea v Watford, Leicester City v Southampton and Liverpool v Wolverhampton Wanderers all look like great games – and I can see big wins for the bookies’ favourites. In fact, I can see goals in every fixture, with players from Newcastle, Brentford and Crystal Palace perhaps going under the radar, despite good-looking games against Burnley, Leeds and Manchester United (!) respectively.

For me, you could fill two different squads with players and I wouldn’t be comfortable betting on which would score the points (see below). There are just so many options, but Son Heung-min (£11.2m) is the one that seems indispensable. It’s likely that if at this point you don’t have him, he will be priority number one, as he seeks to chase down Mohamed Salah (£13.1m) for the Golden Boot and faces statistically the worst defence in the league. Norwich have conceded an expected goal (xG) every 41.3 minutes and have shipped the highest number of goals in the league (79); is there a sofa big enough to hide behind if you don’t own the South Korean wizard?

POSSIBLE GAMEWEEK 38 FREE HIT SQUADS – AND TOP THREE PICKS

Above: Two potential Free Hit squads, with my preferred draft at the bottom

One of the three players (other than Son) who I really like the look of, and who would certainly make my “perfect” Gameweek 38 squad, is Reece James (£6.4m), who plays a Watford side with a real weakness down their left-hand side. Over the season, no side in the league has conceded more chances (155) or crosses (443) down that flank than Watford. In fact, over the last six Gameweeks, they have conceded 36 chances down James’ side, with Norwich next on the list with 28. If James lines up at right wing-back, expect points.

Secondly, the stats also point to a potentially massive haul for Jamie Vardy (£10.3m). Although he blanked at St Mary’s earlier in the season, eight goals in his last 11 appearances against the Saints (including a hat-trick in the 9-0 thrashing back in the 2019/20 season) highlights his appeal. Over the last six Gameweeks, Vardy sits top of the pile for minutes per non-penalty expected goal involvement (97.5), minutes per point (8.2), and minutes per shot (19.8) – with all these efforts coming inside the box. Meanwhile, only Manchester United have conceded more goals (18) than Southampton (13) over their last six fixtures.

Finally, and this is more of a “gut feel” pick, I want to suggest Ivan Toney (£6.8m) for a final “hurrah” in our sides. A total of 12 goals and five assists is a good return for the Brentford striker in his first proper season in the top flight, even if he hasn’t quite hit the FPL heights that many predicted he would reach at the start of the season. However, Toney has been fueling the fire ahead of the visit of Jesse Marsch’s side, sharing a video of Leeds players celebrating their promotion to the Premier League with a “Mind the Gap, Thomas Frank” chant. Clearly, there is no love lost between these two sides who battled it out for many seasons in the Championship – and Leeds’ poor form, combined with Toney’s obvious feelings towards the West Yorkshire outfit, could be the tipping point of their season.

MY GAMEWEEK 38 TEAM PLANS

In terms of my own squad, I’m relatively happy going into Gameweek 38. No Son was a headache for me, but the injury to Salah allowed me to address this. I’m also happy with my Liverpool defensive double-up. Wolves have the second-worst minutes per xG over both the season (81.0) and last six Gameweeks (97.3). I just can’t see any way in which they score in what should be a routine victory for Liverpool and as always, I trust that the two full-backs will offer good attacking threat throughout the match.

My current plan is to take a -4 and remove Danny Ings (£7.7m) and Matty Cash (£5.2m) and bring in the aforementioned Toney and James. While there are some players I covet (Luis Diaz (£8.1m), Vardy and Mason Mount (£7.7m), to name a few), I think this sets me up nicely for my final assault on the top 1k. A safer option would be just to do Cash to Marcos Alonso (£5.7m) for free but given Watford’s weakness on James’ side, I feel this is too big an opportunity to pass up… and he’s going up on my wall next year, so I do have a soft spot for the wing-back!

Before I sign off, I just wanted to say thank you for all your support whether it be on here, or for FPL BlackBox – it really does mean a lot. Whatever rank you are this season and whatever your aims are for the final Gameweek, I wish you the best of luck… and see you in 2022/23!

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