James Maddison‘s (£8.2m) injury-time theatrics on Saturday means that he’ll now be banned for Gameweek 12 of Fantasy Premier League (FPL).
Sitting in around 20% of FPL squads before he collected his fifth booking of the season, he has already been sold by over 700,000 Fantasy managers as we approach Tuesday’s deadline.
For those owners who are still umm-ing and ahh-ing over a possible replacement, we turn to the underlying numbers, the Season Ticker and Rate My Team’s projected points – all of which can be found in our Premium Members Area – for assistance.
We’re limiting the field to midfielders priced at £8.3m or less for this article, although of course there’ll be some owners of Maddison who will be redistributing funds around their team in order to get to the likes of Mohamed Salah (£12.7m).
MADDISON REPLACEMENTS: GOAL THREAT
Looking at the last six matches for £8.3m-and-under midfielders, it’s Jarrod Bowen (£8.3m) who leads the way for shots in the box (16).
A dozen of these efforts came from Gameweeks 8-10, with the favourable fixture swing for West Ham United unsurprisingly resulting in an upturn in Bowen’s numbers.
The winger has still only had three ‘big chances’ all season, however, one of which was a penalty in Gameweek 10.
Leading the way for those big chances among sub-£8.4m midfielders is Leandro Trossard (£6.9m), over the last six matches (five) and in 2022/23 overall (six). Four of those gilt-edged opportunities arrived in the Liverpool game alone.
Mason Mount‘s (£7.7m) numbers are worth monitoring under Graham Potter. Since the new Chelsea boss first took charge of the Blues in the Premier League in Gameweek 9, Mount has had eight shots in the box and created eight chances – an improvement on what he was producing under Thomas Tuchel but an admittedly small sample.
MADDISON REPLACEMENTS: ASSIST POTENTIAL
Bowen can’t be beaten by any other sub-£8.5m midfielder for chances created in the last six matches, although not one of those 14 key passes led to a ‘big chance’. His expected assists (xA) tally is just 0.56 from those chances created, a number trumped by over 40 other midfielders.
Contrast that with Pascal Gross (£5.8m), who has supplied five big chances to Bowen’s zero. Of the £8.3m-and-under options with a fixture in Blank Gameweek 12, Gross has the highest xA over the last six matches and indeed over the whole season.
Roberto De Zerbi’s declaration that Adam Lallana (£4.9m) will start against Nottingham Forest tonight does raise a bit of concern over whether it is Gross he may replace, however.
MADDISON REPLACEMENTS: EXPECTED DATA
