Introduction
During the congested festive schedule (Gameweeks 12 to 21), Chelsea move down to 12th in the Fantasy Football Scout ticker. With fixtures stiffening after a sublime trio of games against Norwich, Newcastle and Burnley in the last 3 Gameweeks and with rotation under Thomas Tuchel likely to step up a gear over Christmas, some FPL managers may want to come off the Chelsea wing-back double up or to just stick with one of Ben Chilwell or Reece James going forward. The big question is: who is the better FPL player?
Who has the biggest goal threat?
So far this season, Chilwell has started 5 games and scored 3 goals, while James has started 6 games and scored 4 goals. Looking at the expected data and both have overachieved: Chilwell has an xG Delta of +2.32 and for James it is +3.02. Both players have scored around 5 goals more than was expected and, with a goal conversion rate of 30% for Chilwell and 36.4% for James, we should expect the rate of scoring to slow for both players. For context, you would expect just over a 20% goal conversion rate to be maintained across a full season for the most elite finishers in the world.
So, we shouldn’t expect 3 goals in 5 or 4 goals in 6 going forward, but the underlying stats do suggest that the goals won’t dry up. For Chilwell, minutes per xG is 661.8 and minutes per attempt is 45. For James, minutes per xG is 470.4 and minutes per attempt is 41.9. So, while both players are taking roughly 2 shots a game, the xG data clearly shows that James is getting the better chances that are more likely to lead to a goal.
Winner: Reece James
Who has the most assist potential?
James has 3 total assists so far while Chilwell has none. The stats suggest that this is no fluke: Chilwell has a minutes per xA of 789.5; he creates a chance every 64 minutes and has created 0 big chances. Contrast this with James, and his assist potential stats are far superior – he has a minutes per xA of 301.3; he creates a chance every 31 minutes and has created 3 big chances.
One thing that should be noted, however, is that Chilwell has taken 21 corners to James’s 7. It seems that corners from the left are monopolised by whoever the left wing-back is during a game (Alonso has taken 18); whereas, on the right, James will share corners with other players, such as Mason Mount (12 corners), Ross Barkley (5 corners) and Callum Hudson-Odoi (4 corners).
Winner: Reece James
Who is best for bonus points?
Let’s keep this short and sweet. Chilwell’s minutes per baseline bonus (the bonus points you accumulate for doing things on the pitch other than scoring and assisting) is 8.7, while for James it is considerably better at just 5.5. James has the edge for BPS CBI (Clearances, Blocks and Interceptions) and he has 8 of these compared to Chilwell’s 2.
Winner: Reece James
Conclusion
Whether it is goals, assists or bonus, the stats are pretty clear. Reece James has more routes to points and he is the better FPL option. Another string to James’s bow is that 34.4% of Chelsea’s attacks as a team occur in the right zone, while for the left zone it is down at 28.2%. This suggests their attack is skewed more to the right than the left. In Chilwell’s favour, however, he has never been subbed on this season, while James has been subbed on for a 1-pointer twice. However, when you average James’s points this season (1, 18, 1, 1, 1, 13, 21, 7) across his 8 appearances, you get 7.9 points per game. This is the equivalent of a clean sheet and 2 bonus points every time he plays. By looking at his points across a longer time period, it makes the odd benching and a substitute appearance in any given Gameweek much easier to stomach.