FPL Focal previews the weekend’s Fantasy Premier League (FPL) action, taking a look at who the bookies think are the best bets for goals and clean sheets as well as monitoring the latest transfer trends.
Make sure to also check out G-Whizz’s weekly Hot Topic on fixture and clean sheet odds when it appears, which also looks back at how the bookmakers performed in the previous Gameweek.
GAMEWEEK 15: GOALSCORER ODDS
We start off with the anytime goalscorer odds, which are based on if the player starts – and that may not apply to a few players here this Gameweek.
Erling Haaland (£12.1m) is well out in front with a 71% chance of finding the net, though his involvement in Gameweek 15 remains in question. Pep Guardiola remarked in his press conference that the forward is not yet training with his team-mates, and he wasn’t included in the squad to face Sevilla in the Champions League.
There’s a chance of some early team news ahead of Saturday’s deadline, so it’s sensible to come up with plans in advance to cover possible eventualities.
If Haaland is out, then there’s a decision to make. You could make the case for doing a like-for-like swap to Harry Kane (£11.6m) or downgrading to a forward like Callum Wilson (£7.5m) and move a cheap/mid-price midfielder up to Kevin De Bruyne (£12.5m), who is perhaps the best captain for Gameweek 15 if Haaland misses out.
Julian Alvarez (£6.0m) is second in the goalscorer odds table with a 51% chance of scoring; if we get any early news that he starts, he could be a fun short-term punt before the World Cup. Fulham are bottom of the league for expected goals conceded (xGC) this season, with 23.9, so it’s difficult to look beyond a comfortable City win.
Wilson was the top scorer of Gameweek 14 with a 19-pointer and has been given a 42% chance of scoring against Southampton, who have shipped 20 goals this season.
Again, if we get any early news that Riyad Mahrez (£7.5m) starts, he’s a maverick punt for the upcoming Gameweek. Guardiola has alluded to the fact that he can sense when some players are not giving it 100% out of fear of injury before the World Cup, something he doesn’t have to worry about with the Algerian winger.
Kane has a 41% chance of finding the net in the match against Liverpool, who certainly do not boast the same resolute defence that we’ve become familiar with over recent years.
Dominic Calvert-Lewin (£7.9m) is another one to consider as a short-term punt, with two good games before the World Cup – starting with a home match against Leicester this weekend. Wilson is still the far more obvious pick in this price bracket, however.
Phil Foden (£8.5m) and De Bruyne also make the top goalscorer odds with a 37% chance. It all points towards a comfortable home win at the Etihad and we’ll be crossing our fingers that our City assets start in this one.
Darwin Nunez (£8.9m) banked a goal and an assist off the bench in the Champions League against Napoli in midweek, as Liverpool inflicted the Serie A leaders’ first loss all season. He’s been given a 34% chance of scoring against Spurs.
GAMEWEEK 15: CLEAN SHEET ODDS
Top in the clean sheet odds this Gameweek, as expected, are Man City. Guardiola’s team sit top for both expected goals (xG) and xGC over the season.
It’s West Ham in second with a 37.5% chance of a shut-out. The Hammers have two home games before the World Cup, against Crystal Palace and Leicester, and Kurt Zouma (£4.5m) and Aaron Cresswell (£4.8m) are both appealing picks if you’re looking for a defender.
There is good news for those of you with Newcastle defensive assets, which let’s be honest is all of us. They’re third on the clean sheet odds, given a 36% chance of shutting out Southampton.
Manchester United have a 31.5% chance of banking a clean sheet away to Aston Villa. Diogo Dalot (£4.8m) is the stand-out pick in defence and was sensational against West Ham, picking up maximum bonus for the fourth time this season. He is, however, only a booking away from a one-match ban.
There are some awkward fixtures this Gameweek, with Chelsea at home to Arsenal and Spurs entertaining Liverpool. All of those clubs are well down on the above list.
Rock bottom this Gameweek are Fulham, with just a 5.5% chance of a clean sheet in the away game at Man City.
GAMEWEEK 15: MOST TRANSFERS IN
Wilson is top for transfers in with over three-quarters of a million new owners, at the time of writing. His teammate Miguel Almiron (£5.6m) is right behind with over 500,000 transfers in.
Newcastle are absolutely flying at the moment, with Eddie Howe doing an incredible job. Over the last six Gameweeks, no player has more points than Almiron (57); Haaland is second with 44.
It’s a good Gameweek 15 fixture for Newcastle against Southampton but in Gameweek 16 they face Chelsea, so you can also make the case for Leandro Trossard (£6.9m) and Marcus Rashford (£6.7m) over Almiron, as they each have two decent fixtures to come before the World Cup. No doubt once we get to the unlimited transfers stage after Gameweek 16, Almiron will make his way into many of our teams.
De Bruyne’s been picked up by over 200,000 managers ahead of Saturday’s deadline and if Haaland’s out then the Belgian could even be worth a -4 hit, as it’s worth factoring in captaincy, too. He’s well clear of all other players (bar Haaland) on the points projections and that gap is only bigger after factoring in the double points.
Aleksandar Mitrovic (£6.9m) is a surprise to see in the above list, with over 130,000 transfers in. He’s away to Man City, which looks like a very tough fixture, although there are, of course, many Ivan Toney (£7.4m) owners seeking replacements this week. Wilson is the stand-out option, however, and beyond that, you could argue that even Dominic Solanke (£5.7m) and Gianluca Scamacca (£6.7m) are better than Mitrovic for the time being.
If Haaland does miss out, then many more FPL bosses will be looking for a new striker. Kane is the only like-for-like premium forward and he’s already been transferred in by over 100,000 managers, despite posting his lowest score of the season in Gameweek 14. Over the campaign, Kane is second only to Haaland for expected goal involvement (xGI), and faces a Liverpool side who have suffered back-to-back losses to Nottingham Forest and Leeds.
GAMEWEEK 15: MOST TRANSFERS OUT
Onto the most transferred out players and the suspended Toney is top with over 800,000 managers selling him. Not only will he not be involved this Gameweek but he also returns from suspension in Gameweek 16 to face Man City at the Etihad. He’s a priority ‘sell’ if you’ve got him.
Foden and Wilfried Zaha (£7.5m) are second and third respectively. The two mid-price midfielders have frustrated in the last couple of Gameweeks, picking up two and three points in total respectively.
Bukayo Saka (£8.0m) owners can feel hard done by after he was withdrawn in the first half against Nottingham Forest, as he could have ended up registering a lot more than one solitary assist. The injury wasn’t serious and he’s already back in training, so is expected to be available for the Chelsea match on the weekend.
Haaland has been dropped by well over 100,000 managers already. For all we know, Guardiola might confirm that he’s back and available for Fulham – so those who have sold could be in for a world of hurt. It’s certainly a week to leave your transfers late, just not too last minute after the site crashed last Gameweek a few minutes before the deadline!
