All 20 Premier League clubs’ seasons so far are analysed as the countdown to the Fantasy Premier League (FPL) restart continues.

In this Half-Term Report series, we look at which FPL players and teams have had an A* opening three months and who returned a big fat F.

FPL bosses get unlimited transfers before Gameweek 17, so these articles will hopefully help you pinpoint some key targets for the Boxing Day resumption.

Here, we focus on one of the three sides to come up from the Championship in 2021/22, Fulham.

ATTACK: SEASON SO FAR

Fulham’s success so far – and ninth place is unquestionably a success – has been predicated on their attack.

Marco Silva’s side were promoted from the English second tier with a reputation for forward-thinking football, having scored 106 goals in their title-winning campiagn.

Right from the opening weekend, when the Cottagers drew 2-2 with Liverpool, they have continued with an attacking mindset.

Ranked top half for all of the metrics we have listed above, they signed off for the World Cup break by averaging the seventh-best minutes-per-NPxG figure (70.8) from Gameweeks 11-16:

Above: How Fulham compare to other Premier League sides for minutes per NPxG across 2022/23 (click to expand)

That aptitude for goalscoring has kept them in most of the matches they have contested, only twice losing by a margin of more than one goal. In one of those two games (1-4 v Newcastle United) they were reduced to 10 men very early on, and in the other (1-3 v West Ham United) they only conceded their third goal in stoppage time after chasing an equaliser.

Fulham have faced all of the current top seven already and none of them have prevented Silva’s troops from scoring.

Home comforts haven’t mattered too much on the surface, with the Cottagers averaging 1.75 goal per game in west London versus 1.43 on the road. But their ‘expected’ figures are imbalanced, with an NPxG of 10.17 at home v 5.91 away (admittedly having played one game more at Craven Cottage).

DEFENCE: SEASON SO FAR

Much less impressive has been Fulham’s defence.

They are, quite simply, the worst side in the Premier League for xGC, with their average of 3.53 big chances conceded per game also comfortably rock bottom.

Above: How Fulham compare to other Premier League sides for minutes per NPxGC across 2022/23 (click to expand)

It’s partly thanks to Bernd Leno (£4.5m) that the goals conceded column isn’t as bad.

The German has kept out 2.70 more goals than he was ‘expected’ to ship, based on Opta’s figures.

The chance and goal concessions have happened no matter the venue: even at home, no side has allowed more goals, shots in the box or big chances than the Cottagers.

BIGGEST GOAL THREATS

Above: Fulham players sorted by big chances (BCT) per 90 minutes in 2022/23

Aleksandar Mitrovic (£6.8m) has scored three times as many goals (nine) as any other Fulham player this season and the big Serb unsurprisingly dominates the table above.

Mitrovic’s figures not only blow those of his team-mates out of the water but they are also very competitive when we compare them to all other FPL assets with significant game-time:

Above: FPL players sorted by minutes per shot in the box (min. five appearances)

Andreas Pereira (£4.6m) has been one of the buys of 2022/23 from an FPL perspective but his goal threat is limited, with one of just two big chances he’s had all season coming from the spot in Mitrovic’s absence in Gameweek 15.

It’s on the flanks where the second wave of goal threat has chiefly come from, with the surprisingly impressive Willian (£5.5m) posting some okay-ish numbers: the veteran Brazilian’s rate of 0.48 big chances per 90 minutes, for example, is roughly what Phil Foden (£8.3m) has managed so far.

BEST ASSIST POTENTIAL

Above: Fulham players sorted by chances created (BCC) per 90 minutes in 2022/23

Pereira really comes into his own when it comes to chance creation.

Kevin De Bruyne (£12.6m) is the only FPL midfielder to have supplied more opportunities (45) than Pereira (35) this season, with the budget Fulham man already on five assists.

Willian is doing his best to keep pace with his team-mate, however, posting an identical minutes-per-chance-created average (35).

Set pieces have been a huge part of Pereira’s appeal, with four of his assists stemming from dead-ball situations.

And the good news is that he’s largely seen off the threat of Willian at set plays: in the last six Gameweeks before the World Cup, when both players were involved, Pereira registered 41 indirect free-kick crosses and corners to the Brazilian’s seven.

UPCOMING FIXTURES

The elephant in the room is Fulham’s Double Gameweek 19, which heightens interest in the Cottagers from an FPL perspective but is then followed by some trickier tests.

Boxing Day opponents Crystal Palace have also made strides defensively of late, and boasted the fourth-best minutes-per-xGC average in the division in Gameweeks 11-16.

The Double Gameweek itself is a mixed bag: Leicester were on a superb run of six clean sheets in eight matches before the hiatus, while Chelsea slumped and were winless in five. The Blues also had one of the worst rates of NPxGC in the division in those final six Gameweeks.

Whether that pre-break form counts for anything come Gameweek 19, of course, is another question.

UNLIMITED TRANSFER TARGETS

You almost certainly don’t need a Pro Pundit, a self-styled FPL expert or indeed this author to tell you that Mitrovic and Pereira are the two stand-out Fulham targets for the restart and Double Gameweek 19.

Willian would ordinarily come into the thinking for Leicester/Chelsea at a reasonable £5.5m, with his all-round modest goal and assist potential, were it not for the fact that Pereira is almost £1.0m cheaper. The experienced Brazilian might have been a differential punt had this ‘double’ fallen later on in the season but as many of us are setting our squads up for the long haul and need effective budget picks to afford the heavy hitters elsewhere, the question has to be asked as to why you’d look beyond Pereira.

Mitrovic is a tricky one. Fitness doesn’t seem to be an issue after his group-stage involvement with Serbia at the World Cup, but he sits precariously on four yellow cards and won’t be in the clear till after Double Gameweek 19 is over.

A booking against Southampton or Leicester would see him miss one of the two Double Gameweek 19 fixtures but memories of Costa-gate still linger, so many FPL bosses will likely select him regardless basedon his output so far and pray for the best.

Beyond these two, there’s not much to discuss.

At the rear, Leno will certainly get you save points (he has got at least one in each of his last eight appearances) but clean sheets look like they’ll be few and far between based on the evidence of the first 16 Gameweeks.

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