Double Gameweek 27 of Fantasy Premier League (FPL) is almost upon us, which gives us an opportunity to have a look at some more differential options.
This time, we’ve selected low-owned picks at Brentford, Chelsea and Liverpool, who we think have the potential to make an impact.
As always, to qualify, the player must have an ownership of 5% or less at the time of writing.
- FPL ownership: 4.6%
- Price: £5.9m
- GW27-31 fixtures: eve + sou | LEI | bha + mun | NEW | wol
Bryan Mbeumo (£5.9m) has quietly risen to seventh in the FPL forward standings.
He has already beaten his goal tally from last season but could have had more based on chances, with five coming from 6.24 expected goals (xG).
That profligacy was on show in Monday’s 3-2 win over Fulham. Mbeumo missed the easiest of chances, arriving at the far post to meet Rico Henry’s (£4.5m) cross only to somehow miss from just a few yards out, before he was denied by Bernd Leno (£4.5m) when one on one. Still, he looked dangerous and supported Ivan Toney (£7.8m) well.
It’s also worth noting Mbeumo has scored two goals and supplied three assists in Brentford’s last seven matches, averaging a very decent 5.3 points per start in that run.
The Bees are the only side to have five fixtures in the next three Gameweeks, with double-headers either side of their home match against Leicester City in Blank Gameweek 28. First, they visit Everton and Southampton, on the back of a remarkable 12-game unbeaten run. There have been notable improvements from both opponents under Sean Dyche and Ruben Selles respectively, yet they still sit inside the Premier League’s bottom three.
Toney is undoubtedly Brentford’s talisman, but Mbeumo is £1.9m cheaper and could offer real value in the coming weeks.
- FPL ownership: 2.3%
- Price: £5.8m
- GW27-31 fixtures: lei | EVE | AVL + LIV | wol | BHA
Ben Chilwell (£5.8m) has been outstanding in Chelsea’s last two matches, which has coincided with him taking up a higher position.
In Gameweek 26, Graham Potter switched from a 4-2-3-1 formation to a 3-4-2-1, a shape that unquestionably unlocks Chilwell in his favoured wing-back role.
During the match, he was a constant attacking outlet with an assist coming from his corner. Of all Chelsea players, he attempted the most crosses (10) and racked up five penalty box touches, level with Raheem Sterling (£9.7m).
Then, against Borussia Dortmund on Tuesday, he was at it again, brilliantly setting up Sterling for the first goal, before winning the penalty after his cross hit Marius Wolf’s hand.
Chelsea are hardly pulling up any trees at the moment, but their midweek clean sheet means they have now kept five in their last nine games across all competitions.
Now, they are seeking a third straight win against Leicester on Saturday. The Foxes have suffered three straight Premier League losses, a period that has seen them fail to score a single goal. They have been particularly poor at home all season, too, where they have registered just three wins from 12 top-flight matches.
As for Chilwell, he could be an excellent differential pick-up with Double Gameweek 29 on the horizon.
- FPL ownership: 0.6%
- Price: £4.9m
- GW27-31 fixtures: bou | – | mci + che | ARS | lee
Another player who has benefitted from a recent system change is Liverpool’s Harvey Elliott (£4.9m).
A move for the budget midfielder certainly carries risk, given that others can perform his role, yet for FPL managers Free-Hitting in Gameweek 28, he might just be worth a look.
Elliott has grown into a firm favourite under Jurgen Klopp and in his last three matches, has impressed with his quality on the ball. He came off the bench v Crystal Palace in Double Gameweek 25 and made a positive difference. He then did well versus Wolverhampton Wanderers, before teeing up Darwin Nunez (£8.8m) last Sunday.
On paper, Liverpool are playing a 4-3-3 formation, but in possession it is much more of a 4-2-2-2, with Elliott pushing up as the right-sided midfielder, supporting Cody Gakpo (£7.7m). Across their last two matches, only Mohamed Salah (£12.8m) has received more passes than Elliott in the final third, while his five shots in the box are only bettered by Darwin.
Liverpool have taken 13 points from the last 15, as they look to turn their season around. Another win at Bournemouth on Saturday would see them leapfrog Tottenham Hotspur into fourth place, and confidence will be high after their excellent 7-0 win over Manchester United last weekend. This could be a good fixture for them, too, given that Bournemouth sit rock bottom, having conceded a league-high 51 goals.
So, if you fancy a short-term differential punt, Elliott could be a good one.