We continue our analysis of the Gameweek 29 Fantasy Premier League (FPL) action in our Scout Notes series.
Here, we focus on Saturday’s remaining three matches, Arsenal v Leeds United, Crystal Palace v Leicester City and Nottingham Forest v Wolverhampton Wanderers.
Any numbers you see in this article are taken from our Premium Members Area, where you can access Opta player and team data from every single Premier League fixture.
SAKA’S BENCHING
Most of you will know by now the reason for Bukayo Saka’s (£8.6m) benching on Saturday but for the unaware, the winger was reduced to a second-half cameo because of an illness.
It was the first time this season that Saka hasn’t been in a Premier League starting XI, so we should be expecting a swift return to the line-up in Gameweek 30.
“It was an issue that we had with some of the international players and players we had here but it happens. It was part of the context of the game and we used it in the right way. Players are so willing to step up and play in any context, which is great.” – Arteta on illness affecting his pre-match plans
FOUR INTO THREE?
One of the problems blighting owners of Gabriel Martinelli (£6.6m) in the early part of the year was the drop-off in game-time.
The arrival and form of Leandro Trossard (£6.7m) created a ‘four-into-three’ issue in attack, with the Belgian, Saka, Martinelli and Eddie Nketiah (£6.5m) all tussling for minutes – and it was Martinelli and Trossard who often had to split their time on the grass.
That week-to-week uncertainty abated for a bit with Nketiah dropping out of favour and then picking up an injury but the return to fitness of Gabriel Jesus (£7.9m) presents Mikel Arteta and perhaps FPL managers with a fresh headache.
Arteta’s decision was made easier for him on Saturday because of Saka’s illness but the winger is probably the first name on the teamsheet in attack when fit. Despite the comfortable-looking scoreline against Leeds, the Gunners looked like they were missing FPL’s top-scoring midfielder for the first half.
Jesus made his first league start of 2023 and duly responded with a brace, the first being a penalty after he himself had been fouled. The link-up play between Trossard (who started on the right in Saka’s absence), Martinelli and Jesus was easy on the eye thereafter but one of them will likely have to miss out to accommodate Saka’s return in Gameweek 30.
The short-term money would perhaps be on the versatile Trossard dropping out and providing second-half relief for Jesus, who is only just back from injury and yet to last beyond 60 minutes in a game.
Looking further ahead, though, it’s Saka and Martin Odegaard (£6.8m) who stand the best chance of nailing those 90-minute run-outs week-in, week-out.
Martinelli at least works better with a dovetailing Trossard and Jesus than he did with a more static Nketiah up top, so the points prospects improve when he is on the pitch. Martinelli was involved in six of Arsenal’s 13 chances at the weekend, superbly supplying Ben White‘s (£4.7m) goal.
“I’m delighted for him. They were all clapping for him and he’s been working so hard the last four or five months with a lot of support obviously from the team and the staff. Today he deserved the chance to start and he grabbed the opportunity with a lot of conviction and scoring two very important goals.” – Mikel Arteta on Gabriel Jesus
“We are really pleased with him, he can play on the right, he can play on the left, he can play as an attacking midfielder, as a nine, a false nine. He’s really contributing to the team and he really takes a lot of responsibility in games to make things happen and we love that.” – Arteta on Trossard
ANOTHER CLEAN SHEET SPOILED
One oddity of 2022/23 is that Arsenal have kept just three clean sheets at home, with only Southampton registering fewer.
It’s also a third of what the Gunners have managed on their travels (nine).
White at least compensated with his third attacking return in four Gameweeks and he is now second among FPL defenders for points. Before you get too excited, he’s scored with his only two shots in the box since the post-World Cup restart.
“As a manager when he puts the ball in the back of the net it’s great, but if he doesn’t and then on the counter we have an open space, I’m not so happy. But he’s timing those runs very well and he’s a threat. Even on set pieces, he’s improved a lot to be more dangerous and to drive more attention to the opponent. I’m really pleased with him.” – Mikel Arteta on Ben White
A quick word on Leeds, who we’ll cover in a bit more depth after we see them again in midweek. They went striker-less at the Emirates as Javi Gracia carefully handles Rodrigo‘s (£6.3m) return to fitness.
“I’m happy with him. Yeah, very happy because he’s training well, as you see today, he was able to play around 60 minutes and it’s more or less the limit in this moment he can play, no more than 60 minutes. We are managing the minutes for Luis, the minutes for Rodri. It’s something we have to manage.” – Javi Gracia on Luis Sinisterra’s rusty display
One of the cheapest midfielders in FPL, Crysencio Summerville (£4.2m), was the stand-out attacker from the visitors but with a clutch of wingers either fit or nearing fitness at Leeds, there are no medium-term game-time guarantees.
NEW MANAGER AT LEICESTER…
Everything that we had planned to write about Leicester – from Timothy Castagne‘s (£4.4m) ‘out of position’ run-out on the right wing in the second half to what the Leicester Mercury called James Maddison‘s (£8.2m) “worst performance in recent memory” – could now be meaningless.
Brendan Rodgers was sacked on Sunday afternoon, so there’ll be a new manager at the helm – interim or otherwise – with their own tactical ideas for the Foxes’ Gameweek 30 clash with Bournemouth. First-team coaches Adam Sadler and Mike Stowell look set to take charge on Tuesday night against Aston Villa.
One thing to watch with Rodgers’ successor will be favoured personnel. Will it be Danny Ward (£4.0m) or Daniel Iversen (£3.8m) between the posts? Iversen was arguably Leicester’s best player on Saturday, desperately unlucky with his own-goal and called upon to make eight saves as Crystal Palace laid siege.
Will Kelechi Iheanacho (£6.1m) bloom under a manager who doesn’t have so many reservations about starting him? The Nigerian was benched again in south London, with Patson Daka (£5.6m) ineffective in leading the line.
Leicester had only three shots all match on Saturday, all of them coming within 10 minutes of the second-half restart. One of them was Ricardo Pereira‘s (£4.3m) stunner, which gave the visitors an undeserved lead. The complete lack of goal threat, combined with a 13-match clean sheet drought and last-gasp defeat that sent them into the bottom three, was too much for Rodgers to survive. The hope now will be that the new man in charge can revitalise Maddison and co as Fantasy assets, in much the same manner that Rodgers did when he was appointed at almost the same time of the season (Gameweek 28) in 2018/19.
…AND AT PALACE
As for Palace, they had their own new man in the dugout – sort of. Returning boss Roy Hodgson, 76 this year, oversaw a dominant Eagles display that featured a remarkable 31 shots on goal, a distinctly un-Hodgson-like tally given the years of pragmatism/turgid football (delete where you deem appropriate) that characterised his previous stint in charge.
Wilfried Zaha (£7.3m) had seven of those attempts himself before a groin injury forced him off just before half-time, with Hodgson unsure whether his talismanic winger would be sidelined for some time.
“I’m certainly concerned but I have no idea. Muscle strains can be long jobs. If we’re very lucky it might not be long. If I know one thing it’s that he is a quick healer, but we have to see firstly how bad it is.” – Roy Hodgson on Wilfried Zaha’s injury
Star of the show was arguably the hitherto out-of-form Eberechi Eze (£5.4m), deployed as one of the two number eights in Hodgson’s 4-3-3 and pulling the strings from midfield. He created three chances and had five shots of his own, one of which was the free-kick that went in off the hapless Iversen via the woodwork.
Above: How Palace lined up in Gameweek 29 (4-3-3)
Guaita (13); Ward (2), Andersen (16), Guehi (6), Mitchell (3); Eze (10), Doucoure (28), Schlupp (15); Olise (7), Edouard (22), Zaha (11)
There are some juicy fixtures for Palace still remaining, seven of which are against sides beneath them:
MAGIC JOHNSON
Two sides who may be Fantasy footnotes in the run-in met at the City Ground on Saturday, with the spoils shared.
Brennan Johnson (£5.7m) is doing his best to say otherwise, after again getting on the scoresheet against Wolverhampton Wanderers. This may have only been his eighth goal of 2022/23 but it was his sixth strike in the last 10 games, with his influence rapidly growing after early-season question marks over his ability to step up in class from the Championship.
His form mirrors that of Forest’s, as he hasn’t scored on the road since Gameweek 3. But on home soil, he’s a different prospect: only three FPL forwards have scored more than Johnson (seven) on their own turf this season.
The issue with the budget striker is that the fixtures are pretty awful. Seven of Forest’s nine remaining games are against top-half sides, including all of the next five. It’s the main reason why Steve Cooper’s 15th-place team are second-favourites for the drop.
Wolves’ own schedule isn’t much better, with six top-10 sides to come.
They don’t even have a nailed talisman for Fantasy managers to pin their hopes on: not one of the attacking players that make up their three/four-man frontline has started more than two fixtures in the last four Gameweeks. Daniel Podence (£5.2m) scored the equaliser here to become Wolves’ leading goalscorer of the season but had done very little for much of 2023 before it.
With the defence looking shaky (only one clean sheet in eight) and Wolves again outplayed by a relegation rival for the second Gameweek running, there’s little for FPL bosses to get excited about. To rub further salt into the wounds, the influential Ruben Neves (£5.3m) will be banned for the next two games after picking up his 10th booking of the campaign.
Hugo Bueno (£3.8m) should at least be back in the side fairly quickly, making his return from injury as a second-half substitute on Saturday. Centre-half Toti Gomes (£3.9m) was the latest unconvincing deputy at left-back, with Rayan Ait-Nouri (£4.2m) omitted once again from the squad.