With their top goalscorer back at his parent club and last season’s most-used striker departing on a free transfer, Burnley are in need of attacking reinforcements ahead of their return to the Premier League.

We’re looking at the Clarets’ midfielders and forwards from a Fantasy Premier League (FPL) perspective in this latest article from our Promoted series, which focuses on the sides coming up from the Championship.

A profile of manager Vincent Kompany and an appraisal of Burnley defenders preceded this piece.

To provide a fan’s view, we’ve got insight from ‘statistorian’ Dave Roberts and keen FPL player Adam Dennett – who has three top 10k finishes in the last seven seasons – from the No Nay Never podcast.

The stats in this piece are taken from WhoScored, Fotmob and FBref.

WHAT IS BURNLEY’S GOAL-SCORING POTENTIAL IN FPL?

Burnley came up from the Championship with the best scoring record in the division, their tally of 87 goals beaten by only two other teams (Fulham last year, Norwich City in 2018/19) in the last eight second-tier seasons.

That sounds promising for next season but there are some causes for concern.

Firstly, Vincent Kompany’s side were reliant on some dead-eyed finishing.

Burnley’s total of 17 goals from outside the opposition area was by far and away the highest total in the Championship, while they outperformed their expected goals (xG) total by a whopping +20.

It looked like the Clarets were having their own Goal of the Season competition at times; the exciting winger Manuel Benson, in particular, scored six of his 11 league strikes from outside the box.

As you would expect, clubs sustaining that xG overperformance when making the step up to the Premier League hasn’t been common in recent years.

“The big question is whether Burnley’s superb chance conversion is sustainable, especially in the Premier League next season.

“They will come up against better defenders and are likely to have less of the ball which will affect their ability to consistently create chances. Furthermore, certain shots which have found the back of the net this season will be saved by top-flight goalkeepers.

“As expected, promoted sides underperforming their xG is a theme. From 2017-18 to 2021-22, of the 15 promoted teams, only Leeds United in 2020-21 finished the season with a [significantly] positive differential (Brentford ended 2021/22 on a near-level +0.09).

“Take Norwich in 2019-20. They overperformed their xG in the Championship to get promoted but the significant leap in standards saw them underperform their non-penalty xG in the top flight [by over 10 goals]. – Andy Jones and Mark Carey, The Athletic

So if the frequency of the wonderstrikes is to drop, do the Clarets have what it takes to create more clear-cut, high-percentage opportunities?

Worryingly, seven Championship clubs ranked higher than Burnley for shots in the penalty area – although the title winners more encouragingly sat second for shots in the six-yard box.

Another consideration is that Kompany is mimicking his former mentor’s patient, keep-ball tactics. Ranking top for possession and open-play shots but 24th for average attack speed and efforts from counter-attacks, Burnley were posting some Pep-esque numbers last season.

Can the Clarets carry on with that approach in 2023/24, knowing that they will see much less of the ball? Do they have enough creativity to bypass more competent low blocks? Burnley’s meagre total of one goal on the break in 2022/23 was of course a by-product of their possession-based tactics but it will need to improve next season, when they are involved in games against the ball-hogging elite.

Given how impressive, meticulous and demanding Kompany has been to date (Burnley were back in pre-season before the Champions League final had even been held), expect him to come up with some sort of a plan.

“Time will tell, I guess! Although Nathan Tella, who was on a season-long loan from Southampton, was last season’s top scorer, goals came from all over the pitch in the Championship. However, Burnley fans are realistic, and know that it will be tougher next season, and we can’t help thinking we will need to bolster our attacking options in the summer transfer window.” – Dave Roberts

PLAYER-BY-PLAYER

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