We round off the Gameweek 4 Scout Notes with the main Fantasy Premier League (FPL) talking points from Chelsea v Nottingham Forest and Brighton and Hove Albion v Newcastle United.
The numbers and graphics you see in this article are taken from our Premium Members Area. Here, you can access Opta player and team data from every single Premier League fixture.
Two of the weekend’s biggest shocks were Nottingham Forest’s win at Chelsea and the unusually bad Newcastle performance.
The former ensured that most of Matt Turner‘s (£4.0m) 1.34 million managers had the goalkeeper’s clean sheet stuck on their bench, whilst the latter brought a hat-trick from wonderkid Evan Ferguson (£5.9m).
ANOTHER HAT-TRICK HERO
Following a trio of goals from Son Heung-min (£9.1m) and Erling Haaland (£14.1m) that afternoon, 18-year-old Ferguson pounced on a Nick Pope (£5.5m) error to open the scoring. He later curled in a low long-range effort before making it three with a heavily deflected shot.
Owners of Joao Pedro (£5.5m) watched in horror, as the Brazilian started for the first time since Gameweek 1 but made no contribution to the goals. At least popular midfielder Kaoru Mitoma (£6.5m) was able to bag an assist and five points.
As we often see – to be revisited later – buying a player after his big haul typically brings a blank immediately after. And the rotation tendencies of Roberto De Zerbi have already been displayed in these early weeks. However, Ferguson brings so much potential that FPL managers may feel he’s worth the risk if it means buying into the league’s most attacking team for goals (12) and attempts (83).
Online talk of upcoming Kieran Trippier (£6.5m) or Sven Botman (£4.5m) transfers initially seems strange. The Magpies have just two clean sheets from their last 22 outings and were unrecognisable on Saturday, following last week’s collapse against Liverpool with another one here.
Yet, despite losing three from four, their defence has conceded the joint-fewest big chances so far (see above) and did so while facing four of last season’s top seven. An imminent fixture swing could improve matters.
LATE GOAL FRUSTRATES ESTUPINAN AND ISAK OWNERS
Such was Newcastle’s inadequacy, a clean sheet was looking fairly secure for Pervis Estupinan (£5.3m). On a weekend of few successful shut-outs, this one was in the bag.
Until it wasn’t. Substitute Callum Wilson (£7.8m) netted a consolation goal in the second minute of stoppage time to wipe those points and stake his claim for a starting spot over Alexander Isak (£7.7m).
The Swede’s ownership has shot up to 2.77 million since his opening day brace but three blanks have occurred. Not only that, he’s never lasted beyond the 73rd minute, coming off each time.
This rotation risk will increase after the international break when their tough UEFA Champions League group gets underway. Wilson’s start will come soon and, frustratingly for Isak teams, it’ll likely be against one of these nice-looking opponents.
STERLING SETS UP JACKSON HOWLER
Chelsea forward Nicolas Jackson (£7.2m) is one of the season’s most fascinating players. He ranks second for expected goals (xG, 3.03) and penalty area attempts (14) but has scored only once. In fact, he has three times as many yellow cards.
The underlying stats against Forest were strong – four shots inside the box, two big chances and an expected goal involvement (xGI) of 1.11. But he missed an easy chance to equalise.
Above: Nicolas Jackson’s shot map v Nottingham Forest in Gameweek 4
Raheem Sterling (£7.2m) dribbled up to the goalkeeper and squared the ball, only for Jackson to somehow poke his shot over the crossbar from four yards out.
The week’s most-bought player would’ve collected an assist but, in the end, followed up Gameweek 3’s 19-point haul with just two.
It’s Bournemouth (a) next for Sterling, whose week-leading 15 penalty area touches extend his overall lead over everyone else. He’s on 50, ahead of Mitoma’s 40 and the 39 of Bukayo Saka (£8.7m).
ANOTHER EARLY CHILWELL SUB
Meanwhile, defender Ben Chilwell (£5.8m) had two shots and created one big chance for an xGI of 0.68. Deployed as a left-winger, he once again threatened to shower the FPL world with attacking returns but ended with a sense of disappointment. Booked in the first half, Chilwell was removed on the hour mark just like in Gameweek 2.
By then, Anthony Elanga (£5.0m) had given Forest a 1-0 lead. The match ended Taiwo Awoniyi‘s (£6.6m) brilliant scoring streak but, by setting up Elanga, he has still been able to deliver an attacking return in eight consecutive fixtures.
Yet it was a dominant Chelsea that totalled 2.30 xG – higher than five-goal sides Manchester City and Tottenham Hotspur.
Three of the weekend’s top four players for passes in the final third were Chelsea assets, topped by cheap full-back Malo Gusto (£4.2m). Additionally, four of its five biggest xGI underachievers belong to the Blues.
Chelsea XI: Sanchez; Disasi, Thiago Silva, Colwill; Gusto (Mudryk 77′), Gallagher (Palmer 62′), Caicedo (Maatsen 77′), Chilwell (Madueke 62′); Enzo, Sterling; Jackson
Nottingham Forest XI: Turner; Boly, Worrall, McKenna; Aurier (Montiel 72′), Mangala (Tavares 72′), Danilo (Elanga 46′), Aina (Kouyate 72′); Yates, Gibbs-White; Awoniyi (Wood 65′)
Brighton and Hove Albion XI: Verbruggen; Veltman, van Hecke, Dunk, Estupinan; Gross (Adingra 89′), Gilmour (Dahoud 77′); March (Lallana 81′), Joao Pedro (Lamptey 77′), Mitoma; Ferguson (Milner 81′)
Newcastle United XI: Pope; Trippier, Schar, Burn, Targett (Lascelles 74′); Tonali (Longstaff 58′), Guimaraes, Joelinton (Wilson 58′); Almiron (Anderson 58′), Isak (Barnes 74′), Gordon