Spot the Differential puts the spotlight on three players who all have an ownership of 5% or less in Fantasy Premier League (FPL).
This time, we’ve selected low-owned picks at Everton and Crystal Palace, who we think have the potential to make an impact.
- FPL ownership: 1.2%
- Price: £5.8m
Dominic Calvert-Lewin (£5.8m) netted the winner at West Ham United in Gameweek 10, with his recent return to form handing Everton a major boost.
He’s now scored three goals in his last five matches, at an average of one every 118 minutes. In that time, he’s racked up 12 shots in the box and four ‘big chances’.
It suggests he’ll be raring to go in Gameweek 11 against one of his favourite opponents, Brighton and Hove Albion. Indeed, in May, Calvert-Lewin put on a number nine masterclass against Roberto De Zerbi’s troops, assisting Abdoulaye Doucoure’s (£5.5m) opener in a memorable 5-1 away win.
It’s also worth noting Albion are without a clean sheet in their last 14 Premier League matches, a period which has seen them concede over two goals per game on average, which bodes well for Calvert-Lewin on Saturday.
As for Everton, they have been much better of late, winning five of their last seven in all competitions, with their latest victory a 3-0 win over Burnley in the Carabao Cup.
That improved form has coincided with Sean Dyche finally finding his best XI, which includes two genuine wingers in Dwight McNeil (£5.4m) and Jack Harrison (£5.5m), with Doucoure playing just off Calvert-Lewin through the middle.
With confidence in front of goal flowing again and an ownership of just 1.2%, Calvert-Lewin can be a nice differential punt in FPL.
- FPL ownership: 3.7%
- Price: £4.6m
Crystal Palace have been one of the Premier League’s better defensive sides in 2023/24 so far.
In the first 10 Gameweeks, only Arsenal have kept more clean sheets than their four, while their 12.75 non-penalty expected goals conceded (xGC) is the ninth-best tally in the top-flight.
Given that they have already had to play Tottenham Hotspur, Arsenal, Aston Villa and Newcastle United, it isn’t a bad return at all.
In Gameweek 10, a stubborn Palace side reduced table-toppers Spurs to just one shot on target and 1.12 expected goals (xG). Yes, the visitors dominated the ball and had 76.9% possession, but it was largely in unthreatening areas of the pitch.
While Joachim Andersen (£5.0m) remains the standout FPL pick, for those managers wanting to save a few pounds, Marc Guehi (£4.6m) is worth a look.
Admittedly, he isn’t as creative as his Danish colleague, but he has registered five shots from set plays so far and accrued half a dozen bonus points without a single attacking return, so there is real potential to do well.
Palace, meanwhile, meet four of the bottom six in the next five Gameweeks, as well as West Ham. With plenty of clean sheet potential on offer, particularly against Burnley, Luton Town and Bournemouth, Guehi is a decent under-the-radar pick.
- FPL ownership: 3.5%
- Price: £5.5m
Staying with Crystal Palace, Odsonne Edouard (£5.5m) is a cheap forward worth considering given those aforementioned fixtures.
The former Celtic striker isn’t always the most prolific in front of goal but has scored five in all competitions in 2023/24 and is Palace’s leading marksman.
Furthermore, he also ranks top among team-mates for shots in the box, big chances and penalty box touches, so if Palace are going to find the net, there is a good chance he’ll be involved.
They should, at the very least, create chances. The Eagles’ next five opponents – Burnley, Everton, Luton, West Ham and Bournemouth – rank 17th, 8th, 18th, 16th and 19th for xGC respectively, with just four clean sheets between them in 2023/24.
As for Gameweek 11 opponents Burnley, they continue to leak goals, conceding at least two in four of their last five matches. Overall, they have the second-worst defensive record in the Premier League with 25 goals shipped in 10 outings.
As a result, Edouard feels like a decent punt at just £5.5m.
It’s also worth noting there was good news in Thursday’s presser, with Roy Hodgson revealing key creators Eberechi Eze (£6.1m) and Michael Olise (£5.8m) were on track to return to full team training before the November international break.