Our team of Hall of Famers and guest writers provide Fantasy Premier League (FPL) tips and advice throughout the season. Here, two-time Indian FPL champion Lateriser offers his thoughts on chip strategy and why he’s waiting until Gameweek 35 to Wildcard.
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The fixtures for Double Gameweek 34 are announced and we can finally get down to determining our chip strategies for the rest of the season.
What I intend to do with this article is talk about my team and cite the reasoning behind when I plan to play my Wildcard, Free Hit and Bench Boost. With that, I intend to give you factors to consider when determining your own chip strategy.
LATERISER’S CURRENT TEAM
Now, first things first, I want to state that this is my current chip strategy – but it could change in case there are any injury surprises. Alright, let’s get into it.
I am in the convenient position of having a Wildcard, Free Hit and Bench Boost remaining. The fact that I have five players from Chelsea (who play Arsenal away in Gameweek 34) and Tottenham Hotspur (who blank in Gameweek 34) means that I’m likely going to Free Hit in Gameweek 34. That sets itself up and even though I have double Arsenal and will likely have triple Liverpool this week, there is enough opportunity to pick other high-upside players in Gameweek 34 (double Arsenal attack, Crystal Palace players).
I’ll start talking about the important factors to consider and make them relevant to my team, point by point.
PHASE ONE: GAMEWEEKS 30-33
As you can see, some very important teams have good fixtures between Gameweek 30 and 33. If you’re on a Wildcard right now, make sure you don’t ignore some of the good teams with good fixtures in this phase.
Chelsea have an incredible run of matches in the next four Gameweeks. In the next three Gameweeks alone, they face three teams who are in the bottom five for expected goals conceded (xGC) in the last five weeks.
Spurs and Liverpool also have a good run of fixtures until Gameweek 33. While Arsenal and Manchester City play each other in Gameweek 30, both teams have favourable opposition between Gameweeks 31 and 33. It is worth noting that their UEFA Champions League quarter-final ties are before and after Gameweek 33 and while there is some talk that the likes of Erling Haaland (£14.3m) might miss the home game at Luton, I personally think that this is the business end of the season and the fact that all the top three teams are locked in a very intense title race sort of reduces the chances of serious rotation until they are out of contention.
If you are someone who is looking to dead-end their team in Gameweek 34 and then Wildcard in Gameweek 35, then you have obvious targets in front of you in Liverpool and Arsenal assets. The problem is not having Spurs and Chelsea players, who also have really good fixtures in this period.
Bournemouth are another team that double in Gameweek 34 and have a good run of fixtures until then.
For those that are Wildcarding now and having a Free Hit in hand, keeping a healthy balance of Spurs and Chelsea players (who double in Gameweek 37 + 35/36 and have a good run of fixtures in the lead-up) makes sense.
I would not ignore important picks from Liverpool and Arsenal like Mohamed Salah (£13.1m) and Bukayo Saka (£9.1m) as they are elite assets and have good fixtures in the lead-up to Gameweek 37. I would sell them as late as possible based on the make-up of the title race in case you’re looking to Bench Boost in Gameweek 37.
WHY I’M NOT WILDCARDING UNTIL GAMEWEEK 35
When it comes to my team, the reason I am not Wildcarding is that I already have two players from Arsenal and Chelsea, have triple Spurs in place and will have triple Liverpool for this phase one between Gameweek 30 and 33.
My planned moves are Yoane Wissa (£5.7m) and Jarrod Bowen (£8.0m) to Salah and Darwin Nunez (£7.5m) in Gameweek 30, and likely Ollie Watkins (£9.0m) to Haaland in Gameweek 31. This enables me to take a few punts in the following two Gameweeks as I dead-end my team into Gameweek 33.
It is worth noting that while I intend to Wildcard in Gameweek 35, the moment my team becomes plagued by injuries (not just international-itis), I will probably pull the trigger. It’s important to be fluid with your strategy.
The value of information
One of the reasons I am looking to delay my Wildcard is the value of information. I was talking to my fellow Pro Pundit Zophar, who is on a Gameweek 30 Wildcard, about this on The FPL Wire yesterday. There’s quite a bit of information that could be valuable even in Gameweek 31 and definitely in Gameweek 35.
For example, Andrew Robertson (£6.4m) is injured at the moment and we don’t know which one of Joe Gomez (£4.6m) or Kostas Tsimikas (£4.5m) is going to play in the left-back position. We don’t know how long the likes of Allison (£5.7m) and Diogo Jota (£8.0m) are out for, which affects picks like Caoimhin Kelleher (£3.8m) and Darwin Nunez. We don’t know Reece James’ (£5.3m) injury status (likely perma-injured with the potential to come on for ten minutes before being injured again…), which is pertinent to Malo Gusto (£4.2m). I’ve been a Gusto owner for a long time now and irrespective of James’ fitness, which is always sketchy anyway, I highly recommend him as a pick. Outside of his attacking nature and excellent delivery from wide, he’s been present in the box a lot of times and I don’t think him getting you a goal is the most improbable thing.
We don’t even know who is likely going to play up front for Spurs with Richarlison’s (£6.9m) fitness being slightly sketchy. All of this is just valuable pieces of information which might help when picking a team on a Wildcard. Zophar’s Wildcard decision is perfectly viable in my opinion as he had no Chelsea, Liverpool or Haaland but in case you already own Cole Palmer (£5.8m) and can get Salah easily, I would hold onto the Wildcard to just get some pieces of valuable information.
The most important advantage for Gameweek 35 Wildcarders will be that they will have information on ‘xBeachy’. For example, it isn’t improbable that one of the three teams will bow out in the title race. If that team, for instance, is Manchester City and they are still involved in the Champions League, our perception of them will change dramatically for the final three to four Gameweeks. Or vice-versa, if Manchester City lose to Real Madrid in the Champions League and only have the Premier League to focus on. This and the reason that I have a good team for phase one (Gameweek 30-33) is why I am willing to Wildcard in Gameweek 35.
Knowing your own play style
One of the things we need to be aware of as FPL managers are our strengths and weaknesses and how can we maximize fun out of this game.
I, for example, don’t like to be constrained by ‘fixture chess’ and like playing ‘luxury FPL’, where I can pick a player or two based on merit and not be worried that he is not playing a double three weeks later. It doesn’t suit my playing style and doesn’t give me enjoyment.
With the Free Hit in Gameweek 34, Wildcard in Gameweek 35 and Bench Boost in Gameweek 37 strategy, my season is divided into three phases where I can take a few gambles and don’t have much to lose.
Once I bring in Salah and Haaland in Gameweeks 30 and 31, I have a couple of luxury punts in Gameweeks 32 and 33 as I will be dead-ending my team in Gameweek 33. Free Hit in Gameweek 34 is also similar where I can just pick a team without being attached to any planning.
And then, in Gameweek 35, I only need to pick a team for four Gameweeks, which will be driven by more relevant information.
I hope this article and its relevance for my own team gave you enough food for thought in terms of factors to consider for your chip strategy and team selection.
In case you want more, we did a podcast yesterday where Pras, Zophar and I broke things down for you in even more detail. You can view the same below:
