Our team of Hall of Famers and guest writers are writing about all things Fantasy Premier League (FPL) in 2023/24. Next up, seven-time top 10k finisher Zophar takes his usual weekly FPL Q&A ahead of Gameweek 38.
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Q: Everyone is talking about differentials but who is best to sell from the popular high-owned picks?
(via @_mindy_)
A: As the below image shows, Brentford are third-best for expected goals conceded (xGC, 5.75) over the last six league matches and have conceded just six big chances – the fewest over this period.
Yes, they’ve had a good fixture run, facing Bournemouth, Fulham, Everton, Luton Town, Sheffield United and Aston Villa. But the numbers are still good and it’s their last home game, against a Newcastle United side that looked a bit tired in midweek.
Therefore, I think I’d be most comfortable losing a Newcastle attacker for a midfield or forward punt.
Q: A hit to bring in Mohamed Salah (£13.4m)?
(via @iam_flemmz)
A: For those looking to make up late ground in their mini-leagues, I think captaining Salah is this week’s ultimate differential. His effective ownership (EO) is extremely low and most people can’t afford to buy him in a single move.
Liverpool will be looking to say goodbye to Jurgen Klopp with a win against an out-of-form Wolverhampton Wanderers who could have easily conceded four or five against Crystal Palace. Depending on your rank and mini-league goals, I think taking a hit for this captain could be worth it.
Q: For those still with a Free Hit to use, what would an optimal Gameweek 38 team look like?
(via @VendettaFpl)
A: There are a lot of good match-ups to target this week, with Chelsea, Crystal Palace, Manchester City and Arsenal all at home.
I think a Free Hit selection depends a lot on your rank goals. If you are really chasing, it’s possible to try going without Erling Haaland (£14.3m), Cole Palmer (£6.3m) or an Arsenal defender but I think it makes sense to include at least a couple of highly-owned picks, as I think they’ll deliver big points.
In the draft above, it’s just Palmer, Haaland and Josko Gvardiol (£5.2m) who are the template picks. I’ve tripled up on Palace as I think Villa will have very little motivation after securing Champions League football and, under Oliver Glasner, the Eagles have been very impressive.
Additionally, I’ve gone without Arsenal’s defence as they could loosen up a bit if Man City are significantly ahead at half-time.
Q: Can we be sure of a Malo Gusto (£4.3m) start on Sunday, or is there a chance that Mauricio Pochettino will revert to the Trevoh Chalobah (£4.3m) right-back thing?
(via @fpl_disorder)
A: Fitness permitting, there’s a very good chance that Gusto starts at right-back because he was very good versus Brighton and Hove Albion. Now that Reece James (£5.3m) is suspended, I would start the Frenchman.
Q: This weekend, which teams would you target against? Those with nothing to play for, likely to field peripheral players etc.
(via TRIPPIER HAZARD)
A: In general, I think the sides who are playing their final home game will put some effort in, even if there’s nothing to play for. Everyone wants to give their fans a nice feeling heading into the summer and do the usual lap around the pitch.
So, keeping that in mind, I think the fixtures to target for goals are Crystal Palace v Aston Villa and Liverpool v Wolves.
Man City v West Ham United is an obvious one too but that could go into ‘control mode’ if Pep Guardiola’s lot take a comfortable lead.
Elsewhere, Arsenal v Everton game has me divided. The Gunners will want to sign off in style irrespective of what happens in Manchester but Everton aren’t likely to roll over. Then again, they’re significantly leakier on the road than at Goodison Park, meaning there could be lots of goals there too.
Burnley v Nottingham Forest is also interesting. The Clarets will want to go all-out for the win while Forest need their goal difference to be respectable, suggesting there could be plenty of counter-attacking opportunities for the visitors.
Then there’s Sheffield United hosting Spurs in their last home game in this division, which should also bring many goals. It’s an end-of-season situation familiar to the north London side.
Manchester United could rest some players with the FA Cup in mind but they do have some incentive in terms of league position. And although Chelsea are in form and feeling good, I don’t think Bournemouth will give up that many.
Q: Did you have fun in 2023/24? Who bangs in the final day hat-trick, in your view?
(via AC/DC AFC)
A: It’s been an absolute pleasure writing these articles every week. I am so thankful to the entire Scout team – Neale, Tom, Chris, Marc and the many others who help edit my content and allow me to bring these to you.
Our Podcast, The FPL Wire, has also received a tremendous amount of love from the community this year. Myself and fellow co-hosts Pras and Lateriser are extremely grateful to you all.
On a more personal level, the FPL and Premier League season didn’t start off great. I’m a Chelsea fan and we started quite ropey, with eight losses in our first 18 matches. Plus, I was ranked around two millionth in Gameweek 8.
However, things started improving from there. Hits in five consecutive Gameweeks (25 to 29) took me up to 63k but the run following March’s international break has been a dream, moving from to a current 5.2k standing.
This is likely to be my best overall rank since 2015/16 and I’m starting to get optimistic about Chelsea’s prospects next season too. So overall it has been one of the most memorable campaigns for me and I’ve had a ton of fun.
As for a final day hat-trick, I think I’ll go with Jean-Philippe Mateta (£5.0m). He’s provided the highest individual score for me throughout the year and it has been amazing to see him improve under Glasner.
That’s it from me for 2023/24. Thank you again. You can check out our Gameweek 38 episode of The FPL Wire below:
