Euro 2024 Fantasy begins tonight – so it’s time to finalise our Matchday 1 Scout Picks.
There’s only been a small amount of tinkering from the ‘bus team’, with the changes coming in defence.
A reminder that we’ll be rolling out a weekly ‘Free Hit’ selection ahead of every Matchday during the European Championship.
Our captaincy schedule is also included at the foot of this article.
GOALKEEPERS
It’s all change between the sticks with Jordan Pickford (€5.0m) and Horatiu Moldovan (€4.0m) making way. England’s defence looks more and more like a weak spot, while there’s too much doubt over who lines up for Romania for us to stick with Moldovan.
Diogo Costa (€5.0m) is our main shotstopper.
Portugal were the best side in qualification for clean sheets, goals conceded, expected goals conceded (xGC) and big chances conceded.
No side who made it to the Euros scored fewer goals in qualifying than opponents the Czech Republic, either.
It’s slim pickings in the €4.0m bracket but Patrick Pentz (€4.0m) is effectively a free hit before Costa plays in Matchday 1.
The Austria goalkeeper should rack up the save points against France. It’s also worth mentioning that his nation have conceded only three goals in their five most recent friendlies against countries who will be in Germany this summer.
DEFENDERS
With there still some uncertainty over Jeremie Frimpong (€5.5m) and Denzel Dumfries (€5.5m), we’re throwing in our lot with the nailed Virgil van Dijk (€6.0m).
It’s a lot of money to spend but Poland’s attacking injury crisis has cemented our selection of a Netherlands defender. On top of that, van Dijk offers a bit of goal threat from set plays (he has scored in both of the Netherlands’ recent friendlies) and may also have penalty-taking responsibilities for the Dutch.
There are other routes to points, too: van Dijk averaged around 5.1 ball recoveries per game in qualifying.
Budget pair Wout Faes (€4.0m) and Maximilian Mittelstadt (€4.0m) are wallet-friendly starters who you can read more about in our €4.0m defenders article from this morning.
We have changed our €4.5m defender, however.
This has come about due to emerging team news in the week, which suggests that Maxim De Cuyper (€4.5m) will start at left-back for Belgium. He’s a rookie who only made his debut last week but he offers an attacking threat: three shots and three chances created arrived in 165 minutes of action in the two June friendlies.
Above: Maxim De Cuyper’s touch heatmap in Belgium’s two June friendlies, via the Fantasy Football Scout Members Area
Jonathan Tah (€4.5m) makes way, although that could backfire given Germany’s high clean sheet chances. Hopefully, De Cuyper’s attacking threat can make it worthwhile.
We’ve seen so many different predicted Italy XIs this week that it’s difficult to keep up. But Federico Dimarco (€5.0m) has been a fixture of all of them. While there was a shortage of attacking returns in qualifying, there were some strong underlying numbers from the Italian full-back: a minutes-per-shot average of 53.1 was one of the best posted by a defender.
Of the teams to make it to Germany, Albania had the worst rate of xG in qualification.
MIDFIELDERS
There’s no change to our midfield from our first draft.
Florian Wirtz (€7.5m) and Bruno Fernandes (€9.0m) are captaincy selections at either end of the Matchday, which influenced their inclusion.
Jamal Musiala’s (€8.5m) less affordable price and Ilkay Gundogan’s (€7.0m) indifferent form were also factors with the nomination of Wirtz, who was Germany’s leading player for chances created and recoveries over their last year of friendlies.
Fernandes, meanwhile, is arguably the most well-rounded player in UEFA Fantasy. He created more chances and big chances (37 and 11) in qualifying than anyone else, scored six goals and should get lot of ball recoveries.
Three more mid-price picks are included, namely Dominik Szoboszlai (€7.0m), Rodri (€6.5m) and Hakan Çalhanoğlu (€6.5m). We think that all three are on penalties for their respective nations, with Szoboszlai and Çalhanoğlu on all manner of set pieces. This trio should chip in with regular ball recoveries, too.
There was some umming and ahhing over whether we should include Rodri and Calhanoglu, given their deeper roles. Fantasy flavour of the week Georgiy Sudakov (€6.5m) was also in consideration, with a better-on-paper fixture than Rodri.
We’ve stuck to our guns after a quick comparison of their stats from qualification:
FORWARDS
We’ll keep this one short and sweet.
Yes, it’s the template(ish) trio of Kylian Mbappe (€11.0m), Harry Kane (€11.0m) and Romelu Lukaku (€9.0m).
We say ‘ish’ because Cristiano Ronaldo (€10.0m) is actually more owned than Lukaku, although not by much.
A combined 31 goals were plundered by our chosen forwards during qualification, with each striker hitting double figures for big chances. Only Ronaldo finished clear of this trio for xG among forwards in qualifying. All of them are on penalties, too.
The one drawback, other than funds, is that Lukaku and Mbappe both play on the same day, so we can only captain one of them.
Mbappe’s illness is something we’re monitoring but with France not in action until Monday, there’s hopefully enough time for him to recover.
SCOUT PICKS TEAM CAPTAINCY SCHEDULE
- Friday 14 June: Wirtz
- Saturday 15 June: Dimarco
- Sunday 16 June: Kane
- Monday 17 June: Lukaku/Mbappe
- Tuesday 18 June: Fernandes
MATCHDAY 1: SCOUT PICKS
