It’s Gameweek 34 in the 2023/24 Fantasy Premier League (FPL) season. I have spent the week agonising over whether to transfer out Erling Haaland – who is an injury doubt – for the Double Gameweek of Jean-Philippe Mateta.

I’m so close to making the transfer but, in the end, the generous turnaround between Manchester City games stops me from clicking the button. The rest is history and the points swing is cruel and brutal. 29 points for Mateta, a big fat zero for the no-showing Haaland.

On occasions like this, we passionately wish that Pep Guardiola would be more open and forthcoming with his team’s injury news. But after several seasons in the Premier League, I think we can all agree that isn’t going to happen anytime soon.

So, what’s the next best thing? Is there a way we can decipher his updates and spot patterns that reveal clues ahead of an upcoming game? In this article, we look at everything Pep said last season about those who were a fitness doubt, followed by what subsequently happened.

Pep is quite blunt when he gives team news. A few sentences are usually the best you can hope for and he tends to use the same short phrases multiple times during a season. But are there any recurring, common themes in his repetitive, brusque updates? For instance, when he says X or Y, then is a player more or less likely to play? Let’s take a look. 

Gameweek 2

PEP: “Important players are not here, will not be here. John [Stones] is out, Bernardo [Silva] is out, Ruben [Dias] I don’t know. Ruben maybe he will be fit.”

What happened? Dias started.

Gameweek 6

PEP: “Jack [Grealish] is coming back, he’s trained well. Maybe he will be ready for some minutes.”

What happened? Grealish came on in the 87th minute.

Gameweek 8

PEP: “John Stones is not ready to play, maybe for the national team but not for us.”

What happened? Stones came on in the 68th minute.

Gameweek 13

PEP: “He [Haaland] trained yesterday with some niggles but today we have the last training and hopefully he can be part of it.”

What happened? Haaland started.

Gameweek 15

PEP: “Training this afternoon. I still didn’t talk with the doctors and we’ll see after.”

What happened? Jeremy Doku was absent from the matchday squad.

Gameweek 22

PEP: “Yeah, apparently, he will be selected, yeah. The first time he’s back. Erling [Haaland] is an important player for us, definitely. Has been two months out, a long time, but he feels good. We have a training session this afternoon, but apparently tomorrow, he will be with all of us.”

What happened? Haaland came on after 71 minutes.

Gameweek 23

PEP: “He’s ready (to start). Everyone is ready right now because they are not injured. As soon as they are on the bench, they are ready.”

What happened? Haaland started.

Gameweek 26

PEP: “Good, he’s [De Bruyne] not injured. I don’t know if he’s 100% but I think we took good decisions, didn’t take a risk. I think we took a decision because he didn’t feel comfortable.

“I don’t know [if I will have to protect him again] because we have training at four. The day after the game he didn’t train, yesterday was off and he came and trained for himself. Today we will assess and we will decide but I am pretty sure he will travel.”

What happened? Kevin De Bruyne came on and played six minutes.

Gameweek 28

Guardiola gave a predictable answer to the Man City team news question, saying that Jeremy Doku and Matheus Nunes will be assessed after training.

What happened? Doku subbed on after 69 minutes while Nunes was an unused substitute.

Gameweek 30

PEP: “Kevin [De Bruyne] is really such an important player. It’s been a tough season for him with the injuries and having a setback, he’s been out for a long [time]. He trained really well yesterday so we will see what they are going to do the next days.”

What happened? He started and played 90.

Gameweek 31

PEP: “I don’t think so. John [Stones], maybe. The other two [Ederson and Kyle Walker], no. No chance.”

“He [Stones] has to feel fully, fully fit. The injury was less than we expected in that moment but we’ll see. For today or maybe for the next games, will be ready.”

What happened? John Stones was an unused substitute.

Gameweek 32

PEP: “Eddy [Ederson] is much better, maybe will be on the list. Nathan [Ake], Kyle [Walker] are out.”

Guardiola was asked if Haaland and De Bruyne will come back into his thinking after their midweek benchings.

“I don’t know yet. Playing 12:30pm and [having done so] two days ago, I have to think. I have to talk to the doctors, physios, with my staff and I will decide tonight or tomorrow morning.”

What happened? Ederson missed out. Haaland started and completed the match, while De Bruyne started and played 93 minutes.

Gameweek 33

Guardiola on Phil Foden (knock/dead leg), Nathan Ake (calf), Kyle Walker (hamstring) and De Bruyne (sickness):

“We will have training this afternoon, we will know better how they feel. I would like to tell you [the details of Foden’s injury] but I didn’t see the team or speak with the doctors. So, we will train this afternoon. Now, when I finish the press conference, I will make a meeting and we will see how they feel.” 

What happened? De Bruyne started and played 80 minutes. Ake, Foden and Walker were unused substitutes.

Gameweek 34

What Pep said ahead of an FA Cup semi-final that took place before the league fixture against Brighton and Hove Albion.

“Kevin [De Bruyne] feels well. Erling [Haaland], we will see. Yeah, absolutely [Haaland had problems before he came off]. It was a tough game, 120 minutes, a lot of action, high intensity for both sides. Erling felt something, a muscular issue and that’s why he told me he could not continue. [The doctor] said yeah, a little bit niggles… we will see how his evolution is in the next hours.”

What happened? De Bruyne starts. Haaland was absent from the matchday squad for both the semi-final and Gameweek 34.

Gameweek 36

PEP: “He’s okay. Looked worse, he feels good. Yesterday we trained, he feels good. Yep, [Ederson could be back].”

He also confirmed that Haaland was ready to start after his Gameweek 35 cameo.

“Yeah, [he’s fit to start]. When everyone is fit, everyone has to be ready. I don’t know exactly what I’m going to do tomorrow – of course, I know, there are little doubts for one or two players in the line-up but the rest of the game plan, I have time to think about it and see the last games from Wolves. But he’s ready, yeah.”

What happened? Ederson and Haaland started, the latter lasting 82 minutes.

Gameweek 38

PEP: “We will see today. Yesterday he [De Bruyne] was off, today we are going to train.”

What happened? De Bruyne started and played the full game.

CONCLUSION

When you look back and forensically trawl through all the injury news quotes Guardiola gave us last season and look at what subsequently happened shortly after, some really interesting patterns emerge. 

On all but one occasion – Ederson, Gameweek 32 – when he was vaguely positive about a player, saying “maybe”, “hopefully” or “pretty sure”, that individual played. Four from the start, two cameos from the bench.

Whenever Pep said something about having training soon, so they’ll check the player then, there were eight starts, one cameo and one no-show. 

The dreaded comment about the player having “niggles” occurred twice, with one start and one absence. Not just any no-show – the big one of Gameweek 34 Haaland.

Pep also used his “we will see” phrase at the same time. And when he said that last season, there were six starts along with the high-profile lack of Haaland.

To summarise, when Pep says something fairly positive about a player’s fitness, they tend to play and often start.

When he is firmly using a less positive statement or says something vaguely doubtful twice in his answer (for example, he mentions both “niggles” and “we will see”), that player seems to be more at risk of missing out.

Obviously, to take this analysis to the next level, you would have to repeat this process for all the other seasons Guardiola has been in charge at Man City. Then perhaps even look at his press conferences at former clubs Barcelona and Bayern Munich. 

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